The Nexus between Electoral Management System and Post-Election Violence in Kenya Since 1963

Abstract

The study investigates the relationship between Kenya's electoral management system and post-election violence, which has persisted despite numerous reforms since the country's independence in 1963. The primary aim was to identify structural issues within the electoral administration that contribute to violence following elections. The research analyzed key components of the electoral management system and the causes of post-election violence. Utilizing consociationalism theory, voting theory, and rational choice theory, the study employed a historical design with both qualitative and quantitative methods. The research was conducted from July to December 2022. The target population included eligible voters (260), politicians (50), IEBC officials (40), political analysts (60), humanitarian-aid organizations representatives (10), local election observers (5), international election observers (5), security personnel (10), and county administrative staff (10). A stratified random sampling method was employed to collect data using both questionnaires and interviews. The targeted population established the strata of 641,396, and a random sample was taken from each stratum, arriving at a sample size of 450 respondents. The findings revealed that Kenya's electoral system is primarily based on the First Past the Post (FPTP) model, which is a plurality/majority system. The study identified several key factors contributing to post-election violence, including the "winner-takes-all" nature of elections, disputes over election results due to perceived bias in the electoral management body, and voter incitement by politicians. A statistically significant correlation was established between the electoral management system and post-election violence (β=.685, t = 16.225, Sig. =.000). The findings indicated that the self-interest and impunity of political leaders, along with ethnic divisions and mistrust, hinder the IEBC's ability to conduct fair and credible elections. A significant association was also found between the causes and consequences of post-election violence (β=.757, t = 19.088, Sig. =.000). The study recommends exploring alternative electoral systems, such as proportional representation and mixed-member models, to promote inclusivity and fair representation. By establishing a connection between the electoral management system and post-election violence, this research contributes to peace and conflict studies, addressing a relatively understudied area in Kenya and the broader region.