MULTISCALE MODELLING OF EBOLA TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS

Abstract

Ebola virus disease, also known as Ebola hemorrhagic fever is a rare and deadly illness caused by one of the strains of Ebola virus. This viral agent is regarded as a prototype pathogen of viral hemorrhagic fever with high fatality rates in humans and primates. It is introduced into the human population through close contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily uids of infected animals. It then spreads through human to human transmision via direct contact (through broken skin or mucous membranes) with the blood secretions, organs or other bodily uids of infected people and with surfaces and materials such as bedding and clothing contaminated with these uids. Mathematical models have been developed for between host models and within host models for Ebola Virus Disease separately. However, no attempt has been made to develop a multiscale model of Ebola Virus Disease coupling the within host and between host levels. This study will formulate a multiscale model of Ebola Virus Disease based on Ordinary Di erential Equa- tions (ODEs)whereby. Within host model and between host model incorporating treatment shall be developed and then the two models will be coupled using a lin- ear function of the viral load to give a multiscale model. Stability and bifurcation analyses of the two subsystems will be performed. Numerical Simulations of the models shall be carried out using MATLAB software to show the impact of coupling models on the transmission dynamics of Ebola as compared to single level models and also the e ect of treatment on Ebola transmission. Our work will hopefully cast light on the potential e ects of the coupling function on linking the two scales.