ESTIMATION OF BABY BIRTH WEIGHTS USING GENERALISED INVERSE REGRESSION MODEL WITH APPLICATION TO PRENATAL CARE DATA

Abstract

The global range of birth weight varies significantly across countries and regions with some countries having an average of 3.5kgs for babies of European descent,but for most African babies the birth weight ranges between 2.8kgs to over 3.5kgs. Estimation of fetal weight is of paramount importance in the management of maternal labour and reduction of baby and maternal death. Various models and techniques used in the past such as clin ical method, ultra sound technique and multiple regression models that tries to estimate fetal weight before and at birth. The problem has been accuracy in estimation of fetal weight before and at birth to guarantee safe delivery since the methods are associated with measurement errors caused by position of the foetus,damage on tissues caused by the apparatus during scan and also by formulae limitations based on averages and in dividual variations in growth and development especially when estimated by regression models based on baby characteristics like head size and recumbent length. The study was conducted to establish the relationship between mothers weight, waist size and ba bies birth weight at full term delivery at Webuye Sub county hospital maternity ward in Bungoma county. Historical data on mothers weights,waist size and baby weights at birth were collected during prenatal visits and data collected were used to generate model parameters using the ordinary least squares method. The parameters were then fitted in the generalised inverse regression model. The model was then applied on data to estimate and predict birth weight. The generalised inverse regression method showed that birth weight can be estimated using information from the the mothers characteristics such as weight,and waist size. The study findings concluded that mothers pregnancy weight and waist size can be used to estimate birth weight and can also be used to prediction be fore the baby is born hence useful when used by medical practitioners during prenatal care assessment and also take mitigation measures against any arising emergency during birth.