PROJECTION MODELS FOR SELECTED REQUIREMENTS IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF COMPETENCY BASED CURRICULUM IN SENIOR SECONDARY SCHOOLS IN KENYA.

Abstract

In a major departure from the 8-4-4 system, the new education system of 2-6-3-3-3 was launched in 2017 and named Competency Based Curriculum (CBC). The purpose of this study was to come up with projection models for the Senior Secondary School enrolment in 2026 and for selected requirements for the implementation of CBC in Senior Secondary Schools in Kenya in 2026. Enrolment projections are critical for the government and planners to allocate education - related resources and ensure necessary school infrastructure and teachers are provided. The selected requirements included teachers, selected infrastructure, textbooks and Subsidised Secondary Education Capitation. The objectives of the study were to project the enrolment progression trends of Grade 1 2017 CBC cohort into Senior Secondary Schools in 2026, to model projections of teacher requirements for the implementation of the CBC in Senior Secondary Schools, to model projections of infrastructure requirements for the implementation of the CBC in Senior Secondary Schools, to model projections of textbook requirements for the implementation of the CBC in Senior Secondary Schools and to model projections of Subsidised Secondary Education capitation requirements for the implementation of CBC in Senior Secondary Schools in Kenya in 2026. The study was guided by the rational comprehensive (Synoptic) planning theory which allows for the evaluation that consists of procedures such as cost benefit analysis, systems analysis, and forecasting (projection) research. The study adopted a predictive research design. All the primary and secondary schools in Vihiga County were the target population for the study. Collection of data was done by means of questionnaires, document analysis and direct observation. For teacher projections, the Ministry of Education (MoE) Pupil-Teacher Ratio of 45:1 was used. Textbooks/ pupil ratio of 1:1 was used to determine textbooks required for Senior Secondary School implementation according to the MoE policy. Classrooms projection was arrived at through total projected enrolment for the year divided by class size based on the MoE policy and free secondary capitation through total projected enrolment multiplied by the MoE capitation per student. The study followed Thonstad’s Grade Transition Model for projecting the CBC enrolment trends of the 2017 Grade one cohort to Junior and eventually Senior School. The study analyzed enrollment statistics from the years 2017 to 2021. The results of this study demonstrated a steady rise in CBC enrollment up until the year 2026. The estimated enrollment in senior high school is expected to rise from 24,361 in 2026 to 26,198 in 2028 in Vihiga County. The results suggest a rise in enrolment which further results in a corresponding increase in the need for teachers, physical infrastructure, and the average size of schools. The analysis determined that there will be a deficit of Teachers and anticipated insufficiency of necessary facilities as a result of the expected rise in student enrollment at the Senior Secondary level by 2026. The study therefore recommended the need to expand the physical infrastructure, the need for Teachers Service Commission (TSC) to roll out a plan to employ more teachers by 2028. With the findings of this study, the MOE, and TSC may be guided to consider adequate employment of teachers who are CBC compliant and the need for adequate textbooks supply in time for use during instruction. With the enrolment projections at Senior Secondary Schools in 2026, budgetary allocations will be much easier by the stakeholders. The results of this study would also provide valuable information to policy makers, such as the TSC and Ministry of Education, to develop effective policy reforms that would improve the delivery of high quality education in Vihiga County.